The World Bank has reported that the increasing number of conflicts and related fatalities since the early 2000s has significantly fueled extreme poverty worldwide, with economies in conflict-affected regions becoming epicenters of global poverty and food insecurity.
According to the global financial institution, approximately 421 million people are currently surviving on less than $3 a day in regions affected by conflict or instability, representing a situation of extreme poverty. The World Bank warns this number is projected to increase to 435 million by 2030 if current trends continue.
World Bank Group Chief Economist Indermit Gill noted that while global attention has been focused on conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East over the past three years, "half of the countries facing conflict or instability today have been in such conditions for 15 years or more."
Widespread Impact of Conflict
The Washington-based development lender currently classifies 39 economies as facing conflict or instability, with 21 of them in active conflict. Among the countries specifically mentioned are Ukraine, Somalia, South Sudan, the West Bank, Gaza, and Iraq.
World Bank Group Deputy Chief Economist Ayhan Kose emphasized that "economic stagnation — rather than growth — has been the norm in economies hit by conflict and instability over the past decade and a half."
The report highlights that high-intensity conflicts, which result in more than 150 deaths per million people, typically lead to a cumulative decline of approximately 20 percent in GDP per capita after five years.
Potential for Recovery
Despite the grim outlook, the World Bank noted that some conflict-affected economies possess advantages that could potentially reignite growth. Countries like Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and the Democratic Republic of Congo are rich in minerals essential for clean technology, including electric vehicles and solar panels.
These natural resources could provide pathways to economic recovery if properly harnessed amid efforts to address the underlying causes of conflict and instability.
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