As Nigeria grapples with economic challenges, a new debate has emerged regarding the proposed increase in taxation on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages (SSBs), with experts warning that such policies may be based on misunderstood data and could harm the economy.

Recent advocacy by internationally funded organizations, particularly the Corporate Accountability and Public Participation Africa (CAPPA), has pushed for higher taxes on SSBs, claiming it would reduce non-communicable diseases (NCDs) like obesity and diabetes. However, data suggests this approach may be addressing a problem that doesn't exist in Nigeria.

According to World Health Organization (WHO) standards, the safe limit for sugar consumption is approximately 25 grams per day for adults. Nigeria's current per capita sugar consumption stands at roughly 8 kilograms per year, translating to about 21 grams daily—well within the recommended safe limits.

This places Nigeria in sharp contrast with countries like the United States, which consumes over 68 kilograms per capita annually—more than eight times Nigeria's consumption levels. Even within Africa, Nigeria's consumption is among the lowest, with Egypt consuming 33-35kg per year and South Africa 25-30kg per year.

Economic Implications of Increased SSB Taxation

In 2021, the Federal Government introduced an N10/litre tax on SSBs. Calls to increase this tax further could have far-reaching economic consequences. Small businesses that form the backbone of beverage distribution networks—including street vendors, kiosks, retailers, and wholesalers—would likely suffer from reduced consumer demand.

The policy could also put thousands of jobs at risk across the value chain, from sugarcane farmers to factory workers and transporters. Paradoxically, the local sugar industry, which the government is actively promoting through the Nigeria Sugar Master Plan (NSMP), would face significant challenges.

Critics of the proposed tax increase point to the disconnect between Nigeria's economic realities and the policy recommendations. With food inflation exceeding 30% as of August 2025, many Nigerian households are struggling to afford three meals daily, making the focus on sugar consumption appear misaligned with more pressing nutritional concerns.

Alternative Approaches to Public Health

Global evidence on the effectiveness of SSB taxes shows mixed results. In countries like Mexico, Ireland, and the UK, such taxes have not led to significant long-term reductions in obesity rates. Instead, they have often resulted in consumers switching to cheaper, sometimes unregulated alternatives that may pose equal or greater health risks.

Health experts suggest that rather than punitive taxes, Nigeria should explore incentive-driven policies that promote healthier lifestyles. These could include enhanced nutrition education in schools and communities, urban planning that encourages physical activity, support for local producers of healthy food alternatives, and clearer food labeling regulations.

Many beverage companies in Nigeria have already begun reformulating their products, investing in low- and zero-sugar options, and engaging in consumer education campaigns—progress that some fear could be reversed by punitive taxation.

As the debate continues, stakeholders are calling for health policies that are inclusive, data-driven, and tailored to Nigeria's unique socioeconomic context, rather than imported solutions that may not address the country's actual health priorities.